- (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) ⇒ Amos Tversky, and Daniel Kahneman. (1974). “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.” In: science Journal, 185(4157). doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
Subject Headings: Human Judgement.
This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.