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1974 JudgmentunderUncertaintyHeurist


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This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.



 AuthorvolumeDate ValuetitletypejournaltitleUrldoinoteyear
1974 JudgmentunderUncertaintyHeuristAmos Tversky
Daniel Kahneman
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases10.1126/science.185.4157.11241974