Baseline Forecast Algorithm

A Baseline Forecast Algorithm is a forecasting algorithm that provides simple benchmark predictions for performance comparisons.

• AKA: Benchmark Forecast Algorithm, Reference Forecast Algorithm, Naive Forecast Algorithm, Simple Baseline Algorithm.
• Context:
  • It can typically generate baseline forecast algorithm predictions using minimal assumptions.
  • It can typically serve as baseline forecast algorithm benchmarks for complex models.
  • It can typically require baseline forecast algorithm computations with low complexity.
  • It can often outperform baseline forecast algorithm competitors on stable time series.
  • It can often provide baseline forecast algorithm references for improvement measurements.
  • It can often combine in baseline forecast algorithm ensembles with sophisticated methods.
  • It can range from being a Static Baseline Forecast Algorithm to being a Dynamic Baseline Forecast Algorithm, depending on its adaptation capability.
  • It can range from being a Univariate Baseline Forecast Algorithm to being a Multivariate Baseline Forecast Algorithm, depending on its input dimension.
  • It can range from being a Deterministic Baseline Forecast Algorithm to being a Stochastic Baseline Forecast Algorithm, depending on its randomness incorporation.
  • It can range from being a Memory-Free Baseline Forecast Algorithm to being a History-Based Baseline Forecast Algorithm, depending on its data usage.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Persistence Baseline Forecast Algorithms, such as:
    • No-Change Forecast Algorithm for status quo prediction.
    • Last Value Forecast Algorithm for simple carry-forward.
  • Trend-Based Baseline Forecast Algorithms, such as:
    • Trend Extrapolation Forecast Algorithm for linear projection.
    • Moving Average Forecast Algorithm for smoothed prediction.
  • Seasonal Baseline Forecast Algorithms, such as:
    • Seasonal Naive Algorithm for periodic pattern.
    • Historical Average Algorithm for long-term mean.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • Machine Learning Forecast Algorithm, which uses complex learning.
  • Deep Learning Forecast Algorithm, which employs neural networks.
  • Ensemble Forecast Algorithm, which combines multiple models.
• See: Forecasting Algorithm, No-Change Forecast Algorithm, Trend Extrapolation Forecast Algorithm, Benchmark Algorithm, Naive Forecast Method, Time Series Forecasting, Performance Baseline, Simple Prediction Model, Forecast Comparison.

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