Forecasting Tournament Event

A Forecasting Tournament Event is a competitive prediction event that ranks participant forecasters based on probabilistic prediction accuracy across multiple questions.

• AKA: Prediction Tournament, Forecasting Competition, Probabilistic Forecasting Contest, Competitive Prediction Tournament.
• Context:
  • It can typically employ Forecasting Tournament Event Scoring using proper scoring rules.
  • It can typically feature Forecasting Tournament Event Questions about future outcomes.
  • It can typically rank Forecasting Tournament Event Participants by cumulative performance.
  • It can often provide Forecasting Tournament Event Incentives through prizes or reputation.
  • It can often generate Forecasting Tournament Event Aggregates for wisdom of crowds.
  • It can often support Forecasting Tournament Event Research on judgment accuracy.
  • It can range from being a Short-Duration Forecasting Tournament Event to being a Long-Duration Forecasting Tournament Event, depending on its tournament length.
  • It can range from being a Small-Scale Forecasting Tournament Event to being a Large-Scale Forecasting Tournament Event, depending on its participant count.
  • It can range from being a Open Forecasting Tournament Event to being a Restricted Forecasting Tournament Event, depending on its access policy.
  • It can range from being a Single-Domain Forecasting Tournament Event to being a Multi-Domain Forecasting Tournament Event, depending on its topic scope.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Government-Sponsored Forecasting Tournaments, such as:
    • IARPA ACE Tournament, for intelligence analysis.
    • IARPA HFC Tournament, for hybrid forecasting.
  • Platform-Based Forecasting Tournaments, such as:
    • Good Judgment Open, with public participation.
    • Metaculus Tournament, featuring AI questions.
  • Specialized Forecasting Tournaments, such as:
    • Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, on long-term risks.
    • Replication Markets Tournament, for scientific reproducibility.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • Prediction Market, which uses market mechanisms.
  • Expert Survey, which lacks competitive scoring.
  • Polling, which aggregates non-probabilistic opinions.
• See: Forecasting Competition, Competitive Prediction System, Superforecaster, Brier Score Measure, Proper Scoring Rule, Wisdom of Crowds Effect, Prediction Market, Probabilistic Forecasting Task, Aggregate Forecast.

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