Elite Overproduction

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An Elite Overproduction is a societal condition where an excessive number of individuals with elite education and qualifications compete for a limited number of high-status positions, potentially leading to social tension and instability.



References

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  • (Wikipedia, 2023) ⇒ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_overproduction Retrieved:2023-8-6.
    • Elite overproduction is a concept developed by Peter Turchin, which describes the condition of a society which is producing too many potential elite members relative to its ability to absorb them into the power structure.[1] [2] [3] This, he hypothesizes, is a cause for social instability, as those left out of power feel aggrieved by their relatively low socioeconomic status.[1][2][3]

      However, Turchin's model cannot foretell precisely how a crisis will unfold; it can only yield probabilities. Turchin likened this to the accumulation of deadwood in a forest over many years, paving the way for a cataclysmic forest fire later on. It is possible to predict a massive conflagration, Turchin argues, but not what causes it.[4] Nor does it offer definitive solutions, though it can clarify the trade-offs of various options.[5] For Turchin, history suggests that non-violent reversal of elite overproduction is possible, citing the two decades after World War II in the United States, a time of high taxes on the wealthy and strong labor unions.[6]

  1. 1.0 1.1 "Too many Americans who perceive themselves to be elites are chasing too few positions". National Review. 2020-07-14. Retrieved 2020-08-23.
  2. 2.0 2.1 Turchin, Peter. "Blame Rich, Overeducated Elites as Society Frays". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on 2019-10-13.
  3. 3.0 3.1 Turchin, Peter (2013). "Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability". Cliodynamics. 4 (2). doi:10.21237/C7clio4221333.
  4. Turchin, Peter (August 16, 2012). "Cliodynamics: can science decode the laws of history?". The Conversation. Retrieved September 22, 2021.
  5. Rosenberg, Paul (October 1, 2016). "Breaking point: America approaching a period of disintegration, argues anthropologist Peter Turchin". Salon. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
  6. Turchin, Peter (June 2, 2023). "America Is Headed Toward Collapse". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on June 7, 2023. Retrieved July 21, 2023.

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