Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure

A Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure is a forecast error measure that quantifies outcome surprise in predictive standard deviations from expected values.

• AKA: SAFE Measure, Standardized Prediction Error, Normalized Absolute Deviation Measure, Z-Score Error Metric.
• Context:
  • It can typically quantify standardized absolute forecast error measure surprise in prediction outcomes.
  • It can typically enable standardized absolute forecast error measure comparisons across different scales.
  • It can typically normalize standardized absolute forecast error measure values using statistical standardization.
  • It can often identify standardized absolute forecast error measure outliers in forecast distributions.
  • It can often support standardized absolute forecast error measure benchmarking between predictor types.
  • It can often combine with standardized absolute forecast error measure complements like accuracy score measures.
  • It can range from being a Low Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure to being a High Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure, depending on its deviation magnitude.
  • It can range from being a Point Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure to being a Interval Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure, depending on its prediction type.
  • It can range from being a Single-Event Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure to being a Aggregate Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure, depending on its calculation scope.
  • It can range from being a Binary Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure to being a Continuous Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measure, depending on its outcome nature.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Tournament Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measures, such as:
    • XPT SAFE Score, for existential risk forecasts.
    • GJO SAFE Metric, for geopolitical predictions.
  • Domain-Specific Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measures, such as:
    • Economic SAFE Measure, for GDP forecasts.
    • Climate SAFE Score, for temperature predictions.
  • Research Standardized Absolute Forecast Error Measures, such as:
    • Academic Tournament SAFE, in forecast studys.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • Raw Forecast Error, which lacks standardization.
  • Percentage Error Measure, which uses relative scale.
  • Brier Score Measure, which measures probabilistic accuracy.
• See: Forecast Error Measure, Statistical Standardization, Z-Score, Accuracy Score Measure, Forecasting Performance Measure, Prediction Deviation Metric, Forecast Evaluation Framework, Standard Deviation, Absolute Error Measure.

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