Techno-Optimist Prediction
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A Techno-Optimist Prediction is an optimistic social prediction due to technological innovation.
- Context:
- It can (typically) be influenced by historical technological breakthroughs and the resulting societal shifts.
- It can (often) be held by a Techno-Optimist.
- It can (often) be associated with a Techno-Utopianist Ideology.
- It can be associated to a Techno-Optimist Ideology.
- It can range from being a Classical Techno-Optimist Prediction to being a Neo-Techno-Optimist Prediction.
- It can be attributed with Change Seeking, as it generally involves a proactive approach to leveraging technology for societal improvements.
- It is often linked with Upskilling, as many techno-optimist predictions include scenarios where workers upgrade their skills to thrive alongside new technologies.
- ...
- Example(s):
- the prediction that Renewable Energy Technologies like solar and wind power will eventually lead to near-zero marginal cost of energy production.
- the belief in the development of Automated Transportation Systems that could drastically reduce traffic accidents and improve mobility.
- the vision of Personalized Medicine through AI and genomics that predicts more effective and less invasive treatments for diseases.
- the expectation that Educational Technology will make high-quality education accessible to everyone globally, fostering a more informed and skilled population.
- the anticipation that Advanced Robotics and Automation will free humans from repetitive and hazardous jobs, leading to higher job satisfaction and new opportunities in emerging sectors.
- from "Looking Backward 2000-1887" by Edward Bellamy (1888):
- Technology will eliminate poverty and crime by providing equal access to resources and opportunities.
- Technological advancements will lead to a more efficient and equitable distribution of goods and services.
- Improved communication and transportation technologies will foster greater social harmony and cooperation.
- from "A Modern Utopia" by H.G. Wells (1905):
- Scientific management and technological progress will solve major social problems like poverty, disease, and conflict.
- A rational and organized approach to human affairs, enabled by technology, will lead to a more stable and prosperous world.
- Technological advancements will enable the creation of a world state that ensures the well-being of all citizens.
- from "Walden Two" by B.F. Skinner (1948):
- Environmental and technological controls can be used to condition human behavior from birth, leading to a society without war, overpopulation, or personal unhappiness.
- Behavioral psychology principles, applied through technology, will create a more harmonious and efficient society.
- Technological advancements will enable the creation of planned communities that optimize human well-being and minimize social problems.
- from "Ecotopia" by Ernest Callenbach (1975):
- Technology can be used to create a sustainable society that maintains ecological balance.
- Renewable energy technologies and eco-friendly practices will enable a high quality of life without environmental degradation.
- Decentralized, small-scale technologies will foster self-sufficiency and resilience in communities.
- from The Californian Ideology (1990s):
- The Internet and other new information technologies will lead to greater personal freedoms and social changes.
- Decentralized, networked technologies will undermine traditional power structures and enable new forms of social organization.
- The fusion of countercultural values with the entrepreneurial spirit of the tech industry will drive innovation and progress.
- ...
- Counter-Example(s):
- a Techno-Pessimist Prediction that automation will lead to widespread job loss and economic inequality.
- a Neo-Luddite Prediction that technology may degrade human interactions and lead to a more isolated society.
- See: Workforce Solidarity, Wealth Addiction.
References
2014
- (Wikipedia, 2014) ⇒ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornucopian Retrieved:2014-11-1.
- A cornucopian is a futurist who believes that continued progress and provision of material items for mankind can be met by similarly continued advances in technology. Fundamentally they believe that there is enough matter and energy on the Earth to provide for the ever-rising population of the world.
Looking further into the future they posit that the abundance of matter and energy in space would appear to give humanity almost unlimited room for growth.
The term comes from the cornucopia, the "horn of plenty" of Greek mythology, which magically supplied its owners with endless food and drink. The cornucopians are sometimes known as "boomsters", and their philosophic opponents—Malthus and his school—are called "doomsters" or “doomers."
- A cornucopian is a futurist who believes that continued progress and provision of material items for mankind can be met by similarly continued advances in technology. Fundamentally they believe that there is enough matter and energy on the Earth to provide for the ever-rising population of the world.
2014
- http://www.usatoday.com/longform/news/nation/2014/10/28/low-skill-workers-face-mechanization-challenge/16392981/
- Andrew Crapuchettes, CEO of EMSI, points to recent changes in manufacturing as a harbinger for other industries. Thousands of production jobs were either automated or shipped overseas. ... It's a transition that will be painful, he says. "But when you come out of it, humans tend to figure out a way to survive, and they usually end up in a better spot because of it."
2012
- (Diamandis & Kotler, 2012) ⇒ Peter H. Diamandis), and Steven Kotler. (2012). “Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think."
1996
- (Simon, 1996) ⇒ Julian L. Simon. (1996). “The Ultimate Resource II." ISBN:0-691-00381-5
1981
- (Simon, 1981) ⇒ Julian L. Simon. (1981). “The Ultimate Resource." ISBN:0-85520-563-6.