Technological Stagnation Theory

A Technological Stagnation Theory is a stagnation theory that posits technological innovation deceleration following periods of technological acceleration.

• AKA: Tech Stagnation Thesis, Innovation Plateau Theory, Technological Slowdown Theory.
• Context:
  • It can typically identify post-1970s innovation deceleration in physical technology domains.
  • It can typically contrast atoms-world stagnation with bits-world progress.
  • It can often attribute stagnation causes to regulatory burdens and cultural risk aversion.
  • It can often predict economic consequences through productivity slowdowns.
  • It can range from being a Mild Technological Stagnation Theory to being a Severe Technological Stagnation Theory, depending on its deceleration magnitude.
  • It can range from being a Sector-Specific Technological Stagnation Theory to being a General Technological Stagnation Theory, depending on its scope breadth.
  • It can range from being a Temporary Technological Stagnation Theory to being a Permanent Technological Stagnation Theory, depending on its duration expectation.
  • It can range from being a Supply-Side Technological Stagnation Theory to being a Demand-Side Technological Stagnation Theory, depending on its causal mechanism.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Historical Technological Stagnation Theorys, such as:
    • Thiel Stagnation Thesis for venture capital perspective.
    • Cowen Great Stagnation Theory for economic analysis.
    • Gordon Techno-Pessimism Theory for productivity measurement.
  • Domain-Specific Technological Stagnation Theorys, such as:
    • Energy Technology Stagnation Theory for nuclear power development.
    • Transportation Technology Stagnation Theory for supersonic travel absence.
    • Space Technology Stagnation Theory for lunar exploration cessation.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • Technological Acceleration Theory, which posits increasing innovation velocity.
  • Digital Revolution Theory, which emphasizes information technology progress.
  • Singularity Theory, which predicts exponential technological growth.
• See: Economic Stagnation Theory, Innovation Theory, Technological Progress Measure, Scientific Stagnation Theory, Productivity Paradox, Future State of Large-Scale Technological Unemployment, Artificial Intelligence Revolution.

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