Superforecaster
(Redirected from Top Forecaster)
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A Superforecaster is an expert forecaster that demonstrates consistently high accuracy in probabilistic predictions across diverse question domains.
- AKA: Elite Forecaster, Top Forecaster, High-Accuracy Forecaster, Expert Probabilistic Forecaster.
- Context:
- It can typically achieve superforecaster accuracy scores through evidence-based reasoning.
- It can typically demonstrate superforecaster calibration via probability assessment.
- It can typically participate in superforecaster tournaments like forecasting competitions.
- It can often apply superforecaster methodology including base rate analysis.
- It can often contribute to superforecaster aggregates for wisdom of crowds effects.
- It can often update superforecaster predictions based on new information.
- It can range from being a Novice Superforecaster to being a Veteran Superforecaster, depending on its experience level.
- It can range from being a Specialist Superforecaster to being a Generalist Superforecaster, depending on its domain breadth.
- It can range from being an Individual Superforecaster to being a Team Superforecaster, depending on its collaboration mode.
- It can range from being a Part-Time Superforecaster to being a Professional Superforecaster, depending on its engagement level.
- ...
- Examples:
- Good Judgment Project Superforecasters, such as:
- Tournament-Certified Superforecasters, such as:
- Professional Superforecasters, such as:
- ...
- Counter-Examples:
- Intuitive Guesser, which lacks systematic methodology.
- Domain Expert, which may lack forecasting calibration.
- Prediction Market Trader, which focuses on profit maximization.
- See: Expert Forecaster, Forecasting Performance Measure, Brier Score Measure, Calibration Measure, Good Judgment Project, Forecasting Tournament, Probabilistic Forecasting Task, Evidence-Based Prediction Method, Aggregate Forecast.