Scenario-Based Planning
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A Scenario-Based Planning is a planning approach that uses scenario analysis to prepare for multiple possible futures.
- Context:
- It can (often) involve the creation of detailed and plausible Scenarios that reflect a range of future environments in which current decisions might play out.
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- It can be used to aid in decision-making and strategic planning in uncertain environments.
- It can involve both qualitative and quantitative analysis.
- It can involve Stakeholder Analysis and Risk Assessment.
- It can be used in various fields, including Business Strategy, Military Strategy, and Urban Planning.
- It can include the identification of Critical Uncertainties and Driving Forces that could impact the future.
- It can help organizations to develop Flexible Strategies and Contingency Plans.
- It can benefit from Systems Thinking and Complexity Theory in its approach.
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- Example(s):
- A company developing multiple business strategies based on different economic growth scenarios.
- A city government planning urban development considering various environmental and demographic changes.
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- Counter-Example(s):
- A Single-Point Forecasting approach, which predicts a specific future outcome without considering alternative scenarios.
- A Reactive Strategy, where decisions are made only in response to immediate challenges without long-term planning.
- See: Long-Term Planning, Environmental Scanning, Strategic Foresight.