2012 OccupationalEmploymentProjectio
- (Lockard & Wolf, 2012) ⇒ C Brett Lockard, and Michael Wolf. (2012). “Occupational Employment Projections to 2020.” In: BLS, Monthly Labor Review, 135.
Subject Headings: Labor Market Measure; Ten-Year U.S. Occupational Employment Projections Report.
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Abstract
Overall employment is projected to increase about 14 percent during the 2010-2020 decade with more than half a million new jobs expected for each of four occupations - registered nurses, retail salespersons, home health aides, and personal care aides; occupations that typically need postsecondary education for entry are projected to grow faster than average, but occupations that typically need a high school diploma or less will continue to represent more than half of all jobs
Introduction
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- Drivers of growth and decline
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- Numeric versus percent change
There are two ways to measure occupational growth or decline: numeric change (projected-year employment minus base-year employment) and percent change (numeric change divided by base-year employment). Both of these measures of growth or decline are important for different reasons, and when viewed together, they give a more complete view of the projected changes to the occupation and the workforce.
Percent change is especially useful when comparing the outlook for different occupations. Looking at percent change controls for the occupation’s population size in the base year and focuses on how the occupation is changing. For example, general and operations managers are projected to add 81,600 new jobs while interpreters and translators are projected to add 24,600. However, the general and operations managers occupation is much larger. When looking at growth rates, we see that general and operations managers are projected to grow by only 4.6 percent while interpreters and translators are projected to grow by 42.2 percent. The percent change provides a clearer comparison between these occupations. Employment of interpreters and translators will grow rapidly as companies increasingly need these workers to assist in conducting multinational business. Meanwhile, the employment of general and operations managers is projected to grow more slowly than average as these managers oversee larger areas of operations, leaving lower level management to other managerial specialties.
While percent change is useful for comparing what is happening in different occupations, it does not by itself give an idea of how many jobs are being added. For example, employment of industrial-organizational psychologists is projected to grow by 34.9 percent, while cashiers’ jobs are only projected to grow by 7.4 percent. This gives the impression that industrial-organizational psychologists have a much better job outlook, but they are a relatively small occupation and are projected to add only 800 new jobs. Meanwhile, cashiers is a very large occupation and, despite relatively slow growth, is projected to add 250,200 new jobs. Numeric employment change shows that many jobs can be created even if an occupation is not growing fast and gives a better understanding of how growth of the economy will be distributed among occupations. Numeric employment change is also useful when combined with occupational replacement needs to give a more complete view of the extent of opportunities to enter an occupation. (Job openings created by replacement needs will be discussed later in this article.)
As these examples show, the size of an occupation and the occupation’s growth rate are both important in determining the number of new jobs that will be created. …
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References
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| Author | volume | Date Value | title | type | journal | titleUrl | doi | note | year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 OccupationalEmploymentProjectio | C Brett Lockard Michael Wolf | Occupational Employment Projections to 2020 |