AI Progress Underestimation Bias

An AI Progress Underestimation Bias is a technology forecasting bias that systematically underpredicts AI capability advancements and benchmark achievement timelines.

• AKA: AI Advancement Underestimation, Machine Learning Progress Bias, AI Pessimism Bias, AI Timeline Conservatism.
• Context:
  • It can typically manifest in AI progress underestimation bias forecasts about AI benchmarks.
  • It can typically affect AI progress underestimation bias predictors including expert forecasters.
  • It can typically produce AI progress underestimation bias errors on capability milestones.
  • It can often stem from AI progress underestimation bias causes like linear thinking.
  • It can often impact AI progress underestimation bias domains like language model performance.
  • It can often contrast with AI progress overestimation bias in different contexts.
  • It can range from being a Mild AI Progress Underestimation Bias to being a Severe AI Progress Underestimation Bias, depending on its error magnitude.
  • It can range from being a Short-Term AI Progress Underestimation Bias to being a Long-Term AI Progress Underestimation Bias, depending on its forecast horizon.
  • It can range from being a Narrow AI Progress Underestimation Bias to being a General AI Progress Underestimation Bias, depending on its capability scope.
  • It can range from being an Individual AI Progress Underestimation Bias to being a Collective AI Progress Underestimation Bias, depending on its prevalence level.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Historical AI Progress Underestimation Biases, such as:
    • GPT Performance Underestimation, regarding language model capabilitys.
    • Computer Vision Progress Underestimation, about image recognition benchmarks.
    • Game-Playing AI Underestimation, concerning strategic game mastery.
  • Benchmark-Specific AI Progress Underestimation Biases, such as:
    • ImageNet Accuracy Underestimation.
    • GLUE Score Underestimation.
  • Timeline AI Progress Underestimation Biases, such as:
    • AGI Timeline Conservatism.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • AI Progress Overestimation Bias, which overpredicts AI advancements.
  • Climate Technology Progress Overestimation Bias, affecting different domain.
  • Neutral AI Assessment, which avoids systematic bias.
• See: Technology Forecasting Bias, Cognitive Forecasting Bias, Climate Technology Progress Overestimation Bias, Forecasting Error Pattern, AI Development Timeline, Exponential Growth Blindness, Moravec's Paradox, AI Capability Assessment, Benchmark Achievement Prediction.

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