Technology Forecasting Bias

A Technology Forecasting Bias is a forecasting bias that systematically mispredicts technology development timelines and capability advancements.

• AKA: Tech Prediction Bias, Innovation Forecasting Error, Technology Timeline Bias, Tech Progress Bias.
• Context:
  • It can typically manifest in technology forecasting bias predictions about innovation milestones.
  • It can typically affect technology forecasting bias assessments of development speed.
  • It can typically produce technology forecasting bias errors in capability forecasts.
  • It can often stem from technology forecasting bias causes like exponential blindness.
  • It can often impact technology forecasting bias domains across technology sectors.
  • It can often correlate with technology forecasting bias factors like hype cycles.
  • It can range from being an Underestimation Technology Forecasting Bias to being an Overestimation Technology Forecasting Bias, depending on its error direction.
  • It can range from being a Short-Term Technology Forecasting Bias to being a Long-Term Technology Forecasting Bias, depending on its time horizon.
  • It can range from being a Narrow Technology Forecasting Bias to being a Broad Technology Forecasting Bias, depending on its technology scope.
  • It can range from being a Mild Technology Forecasting Bias to being a Severe Technology Forecasting Bias, depending on its magnitude level.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Specific Technology Forecasting Biases, such as:
    • AI Progress Underestimation Bias for artificial intelligence advancement.
    • Climate Technology Progress Overestimation Bias for green technology deployment.
    • Quantum Computing Timeline Bias for quantum supremacy prediction.
  • Historical Technology Forecasting Biases, such as:
    • Internet Adoption Underestimation in 1990s forecasts.
    • Flying Car Overestimation in 20th century predictions.
  • Domain Technology Forecasting Biases, such as:
    • Biotechnology Progress Bias for medical breakthroughs.
    • Space Technology Timeline Bias for exploration milestones.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • Market Forecasting Bias, which affects economic predictions.
  • Political Forecasting Bias, which impacts election forecasts.
  • Unbiased Technology Assessment, which avoids systematic error.
• See: Forecasting Bias, AI Progress Underestimation Bias, Climate Technology Progress Overestimation Bias, Cognitive Bias, Technology Forecasting Task, Exponential Growth Blindness, Hype Cycle, Innovation Timeline, Prediction Error Pattern.

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