2001 SuperIntelligentMachines

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Subject Headings: Super-Intelligent Machine

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Introduction

This column is about machine intelligence rather than visualization. However, Ray Kurzweil's Siggraph 2000 Keynote about this subject was so popular that he was invited back the next day to continue his discussion. So there seems to be plenty of interest. This column is a summarized version of a book draft available on-line at http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~billh/gotterdammerung.html. Your comments are welcome.

Humans Will Create Super-intelligent Machines

Kurzweil thinks we will develop intelligent machines in about 30 years. He has a terrific track record at artificial intelligence predictions, but I think he is overly optimistic. My VisFiles column listing the Top Ten Visualization Problems (Computer Graphics, May 1999) describes my more limited expectations for that time frame. But I think we will develop intelligent machines within about 100 years.

Biologists are establishing all sorts of correlations between mental behaviors and brain functions in brain injury cases, in brain imaging studies and via electrical stimulation of brain areas. If physical brains do not explain minds then these correlations are mere coincidences, which would be absurd. And if minds have physical explanations, then we will eventually learn how to build them.

Since taking an artificial intelligence course in 1969, it has seemed to me that machines much more intelligent than humans will have a dramatic impact on humanity. Einstein's brain was about 20% larger than average in the region that deals with visualization and mathematical reasoning, and look what that did for him. When humanity builds artificial brains millions or billions of times larger than human brains, with intelligence to match, what will that mean for us? In order to try to answer this question, I'm going to consider some ideas about religion and biology.

References

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 AuthorvolumeDate ValuetitletypejournaltitleUrldoinoteyear
2001 SuperIntelligentMachinesBill HibbardSuper-intelligent Machines10.1145/377025.3770332001