Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)-Related Prediction

A Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)-Related Prediction is a technological prediction for the development and capabilities of AGI.

• Context:
  • It can (typically) involve estimating the timeframe in which AGI will be developed.
  • It can (often) include predictions about AGI's potential capabilities
  • It can (often) include predictions about AGI's potential impact on society, industries, and various aspects of human life.
  • It can range from being an Optimistic AGI Prediction to being a Pessimistic AGI Prediction.
  • It can be based on surveys and studies conducted among experts in the field of artificial intelligence.
  • It can include considerations of technological, ethical, and societal challenges associated with AGI.
  • ...
• Example(s):
  • A prediction that AGI will be achieved by 2045.
  • A prediction estimating the probability of AGI will be achieved by 2045.
  • ...
• Counter-Example(s):
  • a Narrow AI Predictin, such as improved image recognition algorithms.
  • a Quantum Computers Prediction.
• See: Artificial Intelligence, Technological Singularity, AI Ethics, AI Development Timeline.

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References

2024

• (Grace et al., 2024) ⇒ Katja Grace, Harlan Stewart, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Stephen Thomas, Ben Weinstein-Raun, and Jan Brauner. (2024). “Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI.” In: arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.02843.
  • NOTE: It suggests:
    • A 50% probability by 2028 for AI systems to achieve several milestones, such as:
      1. Autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch.
      2. Creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician.
      3. Autonomously downloading and fine-tuning a large language model.
    • If scientific progress continues without disruption, there's a:
      • 10% chance by 2027 and a 50% chance by 2047 that autonomous intelligent machines will outperform humans in every possible task.
      • This 2047 estimate is 13 years earlier than the one reached in a similar survey conducted in 2022.
    • The probability of all human occupations becoming fully automatable is forecasted to:
      • Reach 10% by 2037 and 50% by 2116.

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