Cognitive Forecasting Bias

A Cognitive Forecasting Bias is a cognitive bias that systematically affects prediction judgments and forecast decisions.

• AKA: Prediction Bias, Forecasting Cognitive Error, Judgmental Forecast Bias, Predictive Thinking Bias.
• Context:
  • It can typically distort cognitive forecasting bias judgments in probability estimation.
  • It can typically affect cognitive forecasting bias assessments of future likelihood.
  • It can typically manifest in cognitive forecasting bias patterns across forecaster populations.
  • It can often stem from cognitive forecasting bias heuristics like availability heuristic.
  • It can often interact with cognitive forecasting bias factors including emotional state.
  • It can often resist cognitive forecasting bias correction through debiasing techniques.
  • It can range from being a Optimistic Cognitive Forecasting Bias to being a Pessimistic Cognitive Forecasting Bias, depending on its directional tendency.
  • It can range from being a Domain-Specific Cognitive Forecasting Bias to being a Universal Cognitive Forecasting Bias, depending on its application scope.
  • It can range from being a Individual Cognitive Forecasting Bias to being a Collective Cognitive Forecasting Bias, depending on its occurrence level.
  • It can range from being a Weak Cognitive Forecasting Bias to being a Strong Cognitive Forecasting Bias, depending on its effect magnitude.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Temporal Cognitive Forecasting Biases, such as:
    • Planning Fallacy underestimating task duration.
    • Present Bias overweighting immediate outcomes.
    • Hindsight Bias distorting past predictions.
  • Probability Cognitive Forecasting Biases, such as:
    • Overconfidence Bias in prediction certainty.
    • Base Rate Neglect ignoring prior probabilitys.
  • Technology Cognitive Forecasting Biases, such as:
    • Technology Forecasting Bias affecting innovation timelines.
    • Automation Bias trusting algorithmic predictions.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • Statistical Error, which lacks cognitive origin.
  • Random Forecast Error, which lacks systematic pattern.
  • Calibrated Judgment, which avoids systematic bias.
• See: Cognitive Bias, Technology Forecasting Bias, Forecasting Error, Judgment and Decision Making, Heuristics and Biases, Debiasing Technique, Probability Assessment, Prediction Psychology, Behavioral Forecasting.

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