Nuclear War Risk

A Nuclear War Risk is a catastrophic risk that involves nuclear weapon use probability between nuclear-armed states.

• AKA: Nuclear Conflict Risk, Thermonuclear War Risk, Nuclear Exchange Risk.
• Context:
  • It can typically threaten Human Progress Measure achievements through civilization destruction.
  • It can typically require Enlightenment Ideal-based mitigation through diplomatic solutions.
  • It can often generate Fatalism Attitudes about human survival.
  • It can often compare to Climate Change Problem in existential threat magnitude.
  • It can range from being a Low Nuclear War Risk to being a High Nuclear War Risk, depending on its tension level.
  • It can range from being a Regional Nuclear War Risk to being a Global Nuclear War Risk, depending on its conflict scope.
  • It can range from being a Accidental Nuclear War Risk to being a Intentional Nuclear War Risk, depending on its trigger type.
  • It can range from being a Limited Nuclear War Risk to being a Total Nuclear War Risk, depending on its escalation potential.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Historical Nuclear Risks, such as:
    • Cuban Missile Crisis Risk demonstrating brinkmanship danger.
    • Able Archer 83 Risk showing miscommunication hazard.
  • Current Nuclear Risks, such as:
    • Nuclear Proliferation Risk from new nuclear states.
    • Nuclear Terrorism Risk from non-state actors.
  • Nuclear Scenario Risks, such as:
    • Limited Exchange Risk between regional powers.
    • Nuclear Winter Risk from large-scale use.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • Conventional War Risk, which excludes nuclear weapons.
  • Cyber War Risk, which targets digital systems.
  • Biological War Risk, which uses pathogen agents.
• See: Catastrophic Risk, Global Catastrophic Risk, Climate Change Problem, Pandemic Risk, AI Existential Risk, Human Progress Measure, Enlightenment Ideal.

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