2007 TheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighl
- (Taleb, 2007) ⇒ Nassim Taleb. (2007). “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable." Random House Publishing Group. ISBN:9781588365835
Subject Headings: Black Swan Event.
Notes
- A second edition was published in 2010.
Cited By
- http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%222007%22+The+Black+Swan%3A+The+Impact+of+the+Highly+Improbable
2014
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan_%282007_book%29
- The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It was released on April 17, 2007 by Random House. The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events (outliers) and humans' tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events retrospectively. This theory has since become known as the black swan theory.
The book also covers subjects relating to knowledge, aesthetics, and ways of life, and uses elements of fiction in making its points.
The book first edition appeared in 2007 and was a commercial success. It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list.[1] The second, expanded edition appeared in 2010.
- The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It was released on April 17, 2007 by Random House. The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events (outliers) and humans' tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events retrospectively. This theory has since become known as the black swan theory.
Quotes
Book Overview
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book - itself a black swan.
References
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| Author | volume | Date Value | title | type | journal | titleUrl | doi | note | year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 TheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighl | Nassim Taleb | The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | 2007 |