2014 FutureProgressinArtificialIntel

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Subject Headings: AGI Event Prediction; Superintellidence Event Prediction.


  • This is an abridge version of a later longer paper.

Cited By



In some quarters, there is intense concern about high-level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity; in other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high-level machine intelligence coming up within a particular timeframe, which risks they see with that development and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts. Overall, the results show an agreement among experts that AI systems will probably reach overall human ability around 2040-2050 and move on to superintelligence in30 years thereafter. The experts say the probability is about one in three that this development turns out to be 'bad' or 'extremely bad' for humanity.


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 AuthorvolumeDate ValuetitletypejournaltitleUrldoinoteyear
2014 FutureProgressinArtificialIntelVincent C. Müller
Nick Bostrom
Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Poll Among Experts10.1145/2639475.26394782014
AuthorVincent C. Müller + and Nick Bostrom +
doi10.1145/2639475.2639478 +
titleFuture Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Poll Among Experts +
year2014 +