Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Emergence Period

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An Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Emergence Period is an system emergence period for AGIs (when many AI capabilities supersede many human cognitive capabilities).



References

Narrow AI

2024

  • GPT-4
    • Narrow AI Explosion Period (2010s - Future):
      • It represents a phase where Narrow AI applications rapidly diversify and improve in performance.
      • It could lead to the emergence of more sophisticated Narrow AI systems capable of handling complex, multi-step tasks within their defined scope.
      • It is characterized by a significant increase in the adoption and reliance on Narrow AI technologies across all sectors.
      • It poses ethical and regulatory challenges as Narrow AI becomes more deeply embedded in critical systems and processes.
    • AGI Emergence Period (Hypothetical: 2030s - 2050s):
      • It signifies the initial development of AGI technology, potentially occurring in the mid-21st century.
      • It involves AGI systems gaining the capability to perform intellectual tasks like humans.
      • It is marked by breakthroughs in machine learning and cognitive computing.
      • It represents the transition from theoretical to practical applications of AGI.
    • AGI Expansion Period (Hypothetical: 2050s - 2070s):
      • It sees AGI becoming integrated into various aspects of society.
      • It involves AGI managing complex systems and assisting in decision-making across multiple sectors.
      • It marks the point where AGI becomes a ubiquitous part of human life.
      • It raises new societal, ethical, and economic challenges as AGI becomes more prevalent.
    • AGI Explosion Period (Hypothetical: Late 21st Century):
      • It is a phase of rapid and transformative change in AGI capabilities.
      • It could lead to AGIs improving themselves or creating more advanced AGIs.
      • It is characterized by exponential growth in intelligence and capability.
      • It has profound implications, including shifts in power dynamics, economic structures, and human identity.

2023