Counterfactual Prediction Statement

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A Counterfactual Prediction Statement is a prediction statement that is a counterfactual statement.



References

2020

2017

2019

  • https://arithmox.ai/counterfactual-prediction-the-most-important-task-for-data-scientists/
    • QUOTE: ... The idea of counterfactual prediction is to consider output in a hypothetical setting where some features of today’s world were changed. Heuristically, scientific questions based on counterfactual predictions can be phrased as What would happen if questions. For example, we may aim to predict what would happen to the number of visits on our website if we updated the layout. Or we may aim to predict what would happen to the number of items sold, if we bought an online advertisement.

      The idea of counterfactual prediction is to consider output in a hypothetical setting where some features of today’s world were changed. Heuristically, scientific questions based on counterfactual predictions can be phrased as What would happen if questions. For example, we may aim to predict what would happen to the number of visits on our website if we updated the layout. Or we may aim to predict what would happen to the number of items sold, if we bought an online advertisement. …

2007

2007

  • (King & Zeng, 2007) ⇒ Gary King, and Langche Zeng. (2007). “When Can History Be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference". International Studies Quarterly, 51(1). doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00445.x