Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament
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An Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament is a forecasting tournament event that convenes superforecasters and domain experts to generate probabilistic forecasts about long-term existential risks.
- AKA: XPT, Existential Risk Forecasting Tournament, X-Risk Persuasion Tournament.
- Context:
- It can typically involve Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament Participants with existential risk expertise.
- It can typically facilitate Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament Deliberations through structured argumentation.
- It can typically generate Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament Forecasts using probabilistic assessments.
- It can often incorporate Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament Accuracy Measures for performance evaluation.
- It can often include Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament Resolutions of near-term questions.
- It can range from being a Small-Scale Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament to being a Large-Scale Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, depending on its participant count.
- It can range from being a Single-Domain Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament to being a Multi-Domain Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, depending on its risk coverage.
- It can range from being a Short-Duration Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament to being a Long-Duration Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, depending on its tournament timeline.
- It can range from being a Academic Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament to being a Policy-Oriented Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, depending on its target audience.
- ...
- Examples:
- 2022 Existential Risk Persuasion Tournaments, such as:
- XPT 2022, which involved superforecasters and domain experts.
- AI Risk Forecasting Tournaments, such as:
- Climate Risk Forecasting Tournaments, such as:
- ...
- 2022 Existential Risk Persuasion Tournaments, such as:
- Counter-Examples:
- Prediction Market, which lacks structured deliberation.
- Expert Survey, which lacks competitive scoring.
- Delphi Method, which lacks probabilistic forecasts.
- See: Forecasting Tournament, Forecasting Competition, Competitive Prediction System, Superforecaster, Domain Expert, Existential Risk Assessment Task, Probabilistic Forecasting Task, Wisdom of Crowds Effect, Aggregate Forecast.