2013-08-25: Sudden Very-high Global Unemployment Rates by 2030
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I have a strong counter-current justified belief that there will be very high (~30%) and permanent world-wide underemployment rates by 2030 enabled by increasing skill requirements of good-paying jobs and increasing concentration of means-of-production ownership that is precipitated by yet another sudden and deep recessions that will result in a period of high poverty which will be corrected by some new wealth distribution system.
- In the developed world since the 1980s, there has been a decoupling of median worker salaries (which have stayed flat) while worker productivity continues to grow (Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2012).
- A continued growth and diversification of automated tasks, from online reservation systems, airline kiosks, retail cash registers, to robotized warehouses, to fully-automated factories.
- No new large-scale well-paying job categories have been created.
- The continuing global rise of wealth inequality, suggests that the majority of citizens will become dispensable to the economy end-game will be that have
- Most rich households will fight wealth distribution as long as possible, and philanthropy will not be an acceptable wealth distribution method.
- The Great Recession led to a prolonged period of high unemployment in many developed regions, such as Spain and Greece, particularly young unemployed worker despite their tourism industry.
- Manufacturing continues to employ fewer people world-wide, which suggests that industrial automation is now competitive with even cheap labor.
- The service industry is also poised to employ fewer people world-wide, as mass-scale jobs such as cashiers become automated.
- Contemporary culture, particularly US, continues to emphasize a full work-weeks as commensurate with citizenship
- Human violence continues to decline (Pinker, 2011) so wealth redistribution will likely be implemented before large portions of their citizenry become shelterless and hungry.
- Growing world-wide public debt suggests that the problem will be so severe that some regions may suffer severely.
- Global response to problems can take many years.
- Many economists have and will suggest that the 1930’s depression remedial programs dragged out that economic depression.
- Food prices are increasing.
- During the 1930’s Depression governments were allowed to implement social programs for the masses.
- Global wealth is growing and will likely continue to do so because of: Increased output productivity; Increased ability for talented individuals to apply themselves; and, Energy prices may continue to drop due to continued decrease in solar energy cost.
- Some geo-political regions may quickly demonstrate effective wealth distribution methods and avoid their rich households from moving capital to a tax haven, for other regions to follow.
- Many geo-political regions are poor regions and/or poorly-governed regions to deal with the problem. E.g. Egypt.
- Some leading roboticists (such as Rodney Brooks) do not believe that there will be significant technological unemployment .
- There are few existing programs for the amelioration of future mass technological unemployment, e.g. no technological unemployment workshops.
- Homelessness is decreasing.
- I should add the amelioration of future mass technological unemployment to my list of my issues to work towards, but not ahead of the problems of human malnourishment and malaria because far fewer people will likely die from the transition.
- The United States may be more significantly affected relative to other developed geo-political regions, because its taxation system and social welfare systems are least prepared to be scaled.
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