Catastrophic Risk

A Catastrophic Risk is a systemic risk that threatens large-scale harm to human populations, civilization infrastructure, or planetary systems.

• AKA: Existential Risk, Global Risk, Civilization-Threatening Risk.
• Context:
  • It can typically require global coordination for risk mitigation.
  • It can typically involve low probability but extreme impact event]]s.
  • It can often exhibit cascade effects through system interconnection.
  • It can often challenge traditional risk management due to unprecedented scale.
  • It can range from being a Regional Catastrophic Risk to being a Global Catastrophic Risk, depending on its geographic scope.
  • It can range from being a Natural Catastrophic Risk to being a Anthropogenic Catastrophic Risk, depending on its causal origin.
  • It can range from being a Immediate Catastrophic Risk to being a Long-term Catastrophic Risk, depending on its time horizon.
  • It can range from being a Reversible Catastrophic Risk to being a Irreversible Catastrophic Risk, depending on its recovery potential.
  • ...
• Examples:
  • Warfare Catastrophic Risks, such as:
    • Nuclear War Risk from nuclear weapon use.
    • Biological Warfare Risk from pathogen release.
  • Environmental Catastrophic Risks, such as:
    • Climate Change Problem from greenhouse gas emissions.
    • Ecosystem Collapse Risk from biodiversity loss.
  • Technological Catastrophic Risks, such as:
    • AI Existential Risk from artificial general intelligence.
    • Nanotechnology Risk from self-replicating systems.
  • ...
• Counter-Examples:
  • Local Risk, which affects limited areas rather than global systems.
  • Manageable Risk, which allows conventional mitigation rather than extraordinary measures.
  • Cyclical Risk, which follows predictable patterns rather than catastrophic thresholds.
• See: Nuclear War Risk, Climate Change Problem, Global Catastrophic Risk, Pandemic Risk, AI Existential Risk, Risk Management, Existential Risk.

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