COVID-19 Pandemic

A COVID-19 Pandemic is a pandemic of a COVID-19 disease.

• AKA: 2019–20 Coronavirus Outbreak.
• Context:
  • It can be tracked by COVID-19 Pandemic Measures, such as COVID-19 Incidence Count Measures, COVID-19 Incidence Rate Change Measures, ...
  • It can result in Public Health Orders, such as a shelter-in-place order.
  • It can results in a COVID-19 Global Recession.
  • …
• Example(s):
  • the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-03-14).
  • …
• Counter-Example(s):
  • AIDS Pandemic.
  • a SARS Pandemic.
  • a 1918 H1N1 Flu Pandemic.
• See: Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, 2019–20 Coronavirus Outbreak by Country And Territory, 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic in Europe.

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References

2022

• (Wikipedia, 2022) ⇒ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic Retrieved:2022-11-11.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identified from an outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Attempts to contain failed, allowing the virus to spread to other areas of Asia and later worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on 30 January 2020 and a pandemic on 11 March 2020. As of , the pandemic had caused more than cases and confirmed deaths, making it one of the deadliest in history.

    COVID-19 symptoms range from undetectable to deadly, but most commonly include fever, dry cough, and fatigue. Severe illness is more likely in elderly patients and those with certain underlying medical conditions. COVID-19 transmits when people breathe in air contaminated by droplets and small airborne particles containing the virus. The risk of breathing these in is highest when people are in close proximity, but they can be inhaled over longer distances, particularly indoors. Transmission can also occur if contaminated fluids reach the eyes, nose or mouth, and, rarely, via contaminated surfaces. Infected persons are typically contagious for 10 days, and can spread the virus even if they do not develop symptoms. Mutations have produced many strains (variants) with varying degrees of infectivity and virulence. COVID-19 vaccines have been approved and widely distributed in various countries since December 2020. According to a June 2022 study, COVID-19 vaccines prevented an additional 14.4 to 19.8 million deaths in 185 countries and territories from 8 December 2020 to 8 December 2021. Other recommended preventive measures include social distancing, wearing masks, improving ventilation and air filtration, and quarantining those who have been exposed or are symptomatic. Treatments include novel antiviral drugs and symptom control. Public health mitigation measures include travel restrictions, lockdowns, business restrictions and closures, workplace hazard controls, quarantines, testing systems, and tracing contacts of the infected, which, together with treatments, serve to bring about the control and eventual end of the pandemic. The pandemic has triggered severe social and economic disruption around the world, including the largest global recession since the Great Depression. Widespread supply shortages, including food shortages, were caused by supply chain disruption. Reduced human activity saw an unprecedented pollution decrease. Educational institutions and public areas were partially or fully closed in many jurisdictions, and many events were cancelled or postponed during 2020 and 2021. Misinformation has circulated through social media and mass media, and political tensions have intensified. The pandemic has raised issues of racial and geographic discrimination, health equity, and the balance between public health imperatives and individual rights.

2020

• (Fang, 2020) ⇒ Fang Fang. (2020). “Wuhan Diary.” Bentang Pustaka.

2020b

• (Rankin, 2020) ⇒ Keith Rankin (2020). "Keith Rankin Chart Analysis – UPDATE Covid-19 Virus: Deaths"
  • QUOTE: This chart of deaths by coronavirus (March deaths in red) clearly shows just how much worse this epidemic is in Italy than anywhere else. And the vast majority of these deaths are in Northern Italy. Milan is the new Wuhan, and Lombardy is the new Hubei. Except that total deaths per billion of the population in Italy now far exceeds that of China. Italy’s death toll of 10.5 per million (so far) is equivalent to 52 deaths in a country the size of New Zealand.

2020c

• (WHO, 2020) ⇒ World Health Organization (2020). "Global research on coronavirus disease (COVID-19)". Retrieved:2020-03-15.
  • QUOTE: WHO is gathering the latest scientific findings and knowledge on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and compiling it in a database. We update the database daily from searches of bibliographic databases, hand searches of the table of contents of relevant journals, and the addition of other relevant scientific articles that come to our attention. The entries in the database may not be exhaustive and new research will be added regularly.

    Download Full Database.

2020d

• (WHO, 2020) ⇒ World Health Organization (2020). Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Situation Dashboard. Retrieved:2020-03-15.
  • QUOTE:

Situation Dashboard Snapshot (2020-03-25)

=== 2020e ===

• (Ng et al., 2020) ⇒ Yixiang Ng, Zongbin Li, Yi Xian Chua, Wei Liang Chaw, Zheng Zhao, Benjamin Er, Rachael Pung, Calvin J. Chiew, David C. Lye, Derrick Heng, and Vernon J. Lee (2020). "Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Surveillance and Containment Measures for the First 100 Patients with COVID-19 in Singapore — January 2–February 29, 2020". MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. ePub: 13 March 2020. DOI:10.15585/mmwr.mm6911e1.
  • QUOTE: The earliest symptom onset date reported by a COVID-19 patient was January 14 (Figure 1). The epidemic curve peaked on January 30, when nine patients were identified, before declining to two to five patients per day on February 11 and continuing forward. International importations accounted for a majority of cases at the outbreak’s start before more local cases were detected. The mean interval from symptom onset to hospital isolation or quarantine was 5.6 days (median = 5 days; IQR = 2–8 days). The 7-day moving average of the interval from symptom onset to isolation declined significantly across the study period for both imported and local cases, from 9.0 and 18.0 days to 0.9 and 3.1 days, respectively (p<0.001) (Figure 2). Among the 53 patients first identified through contact tracing, 13 (24.5%) were contacted on or before the date of symptom onset.

Figure 1:Date of symptom onset and date of report for cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (N = 100), based on importation and linkage*,† status — Singapore, January 14–February 28, 2020.

Figure 2: Interval from symptom onset to isolation or hospitalization (7-day moving average), of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 cases) (N = 100), by importation status — Singapore, January 14–February 28, 2020.

2020f

• (Ghinai et al., 2020) ⇒ Isaac Ghinai, Tristan D McPherson, Jennifer C Hunter, Hannah L Kirking, Demian Christiansen, Kiran Joshi, Rachel Rubin, Shirley Morales-Estrada, Stephanie R Black, Massimo Pacilli, Marielle J Fricchione, Rashmi K Chugh, Kelly A Walblay, N Seema Ahmed, William C Stoecker, Nausheen F Hasan, Deborah P Burdsall, Heather E Reese, Megan Wallace, Chen Wang, Darcie Moeller, Jacqueline Korpics, Shannon A Novosad, Isaac Benowitz, Max W Jacobs, Vishal S Dasari, Megan T Patel, Judy Kauerauf, E Matt Charles, Ngozi O Ezike, Victoria Chu, Claire M Midgley, Melissa A Rolfes, Susan I Gerber, Xiaoyan Lu, Stephen Lindstrom, Jennifer R Verani, Jennifer E Layden, and Illinois COVID-19 Investigation Team (2020). "First Known Person-To-Person Transmission Of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) In The USA" In: The Lancet Published:March 13, 2020. DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30607-3
  • QUOTE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), first detected in China in December, 2019. In January, 2020, state, local, and federal public health agencies investigated the first case of COVID-19 in Illinois, USA (...)

     Patient 1 is a female in her 60s who travelled to Wuhan on Dec 25, 2019, and returned to Illinois on Jan 13, 2020, and who was not symptomatic while travelling. In Wuhan, she visited a hospitalised relative regularly and visited other family members who had undiagnosed respiratory illnesses, one of whom was later hospitalised with viral pneumonia. No contacts had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, but it is unknown whether any were tested for SARS-CoV-2.

    On DOI 6, she sought care at an outpatient clinic for fever, fatigue, and cough and was hospitalised that day for pneumonia. She was reported to public health authorities as a PUI on DOI 7. Retrospectively, she reported that her symptoms, which also included nausea, abdominal discomfort, and dizziness, started as early as 6 days before admission (figure).

Figure Symptoms and results of rtPCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 by day of investigation.

2020g

• (ECDC, 2020) ⇒ European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2020). "Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic: Increased Transmission In The EU/EEA And The UK – Sixth Update". Published: 12 March 2020.
  • QUOTE: Currently, EU/EEA countries’ epidemiological situation varies by region, but analysis of the epidemic progression indicates that the situation in Italy and other EU/EEA countries are generally following the epidemic curve that was noted in China during January and February and by South Korea in recent weeks. While most countries in the EU/EEA and the UK are currently in scenario 2, all available data indicates that they are very rapidly moving toward a scenario of sustained community transmission of COVID-19 (scenario 3). The situation is evolving quickly, and the currently notified cases reflect a situation in terms of transmission pressures about a week ago. Therefore, a proactive and aggressive approach is needed to delay transmission, as containing transmission in a specific area or country in the EU/EEA is no longer considered feasible (Figure 1). A rapid shift from a containment to a mitigation approach is required as the rapid increase in cases anticipated in the coming days to few weeks may not provide decision makers and hospitals enough time to realise, accept and adapt their response accordingly if not implemented ahead of time.

Figure 1:Illustration of the objectives of community mitigation measures in a scenario of widespread community transmission of COVD-19.

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