Prediction Task

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A prediction task is a decision task whose performance is based on approximate correctness.



    • QUOTE: .. Many of my AI colleagues are still occupied with uncertainty. There are circles of research that continue to work on diagnosis without worrying about the causal aspects of the problem. All they want is to predict well and to diagnose well. I can give you an example. All the machine-learning work that we see today is conducted in diagnostic mode— say, labeling objects as “cat” or “tiger.” They don’t care about intervention; they just want to recognize an object and to predict how it’s going to evolve in time. ...


  • Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb. (2016). “The Simple Economics of Machine Intelligence.” In: HBR, November 17, 2016
    • QUOTE: This matters because prediction is an input to a host of activities including transportation, agriculture, healthcare, energy manufacturing, and retail.
      When the cost of any input falls so precipitously, there are two other well-established economic implications. First, we will start using prediction to perform tasks where we previously didn’t. Second, the value of other things that complement prediction will rise.
      Lots of tasks will be reframed as prediction problems